Petro faces challenges to achieve the change Colombians have promised

Colombia has elected for the first time a leftist as its next president, but the narrow victory by just three percentage points is a sign that much of the South American country is rejecting the ambitious proposals of Gustavo Petro, who will have to take into account concerns and negotiate with a divided Congress to be able to govern Not to mention keeping promises.

Petro, in his third bid for the presidency, on Sunday defeated another anti-establishment candidate, real estate mogul Rodolfo Hernandez, in a run-off that has become an indictment of the centrist and right-leaning politics that long dominated the South American country. . Now, a former rebel turned president-elect faces an intense battle to implement the changes supporters want to see as the nation grapples with rising inequality, inflation and violence.

“Petro set very high expectations of his proposals, and when he gave his victory speech, he kind of inflated those expectations,” said Silvana Amaya, senior analyst at Control Risks. “Therefore, there is plenty of room for disappointment if he does not meet those expectations that people, especially young people, have at the moment because they expect life to be very different from all those social reforms that he is proposing.”

Petro has proposed pension, tax, health and agricultural reforms and changes in the way Colombia fights drug cartels and other armed groups. But his coalition has only about 15% of the seats in Congress, which will force him to make deals, rein in some reforms or even abandon others.

Amaya said a negotiated, reduced version of Petro’s proposed tax reform to raise revenue could be approved by Congress because the absence of one could call into question the country’s fiscal sustainability, but other plans would likely be disrupted. He wants tax reform to fund social programs, including free higher education and subsidies for mothers who head households.

In a sign of the resistance, Petro during his victory speech addressed the other half of Colombia who did not vote for him and proposed a “great national dialogue” that would include his fiercest opponents to achieve consensus.

“The fact that this platform is a victory indicates that most Colombians believe that the state should play a greater role in providing social services such as health, social security and education,” said Erica Fraga, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, a research group associated with The Economist said in a statement. . “…if he does not show a willingness to compromise and amend some of his extremist proposals, his ability to deliver on his promises will be undermined, causing his unpopularity to plummet and increasing the risk of social unrest.”

Petro’s bid was the latest left-wing political victory in Latin America fueled by voters’ desire for change. Chile, Peru, and Honduras have elected left-wing presidents in 2021, and in Brazil, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is leading this year’s presidential election.

The victory of Pietro, 62, will be officially announced after an official count that will take a few days. Historically, the initial results coincided with the final results.

About 21.6 million of the 39 million voters cast their ballots on Sunday. The abstention rate has exceeded 40% in every presidential election since 1990.

President Evan Duque was ineligible for re-election.

And opinion polls before the run-off had indicated that Petro and Hernandez – both former mayors – had been in a tight race since they led four other candidates in the May 29 primary. Neither of them got enough votes to win immediately and headed to the runoff.

Petro’s victory in Latin America’s third most populous country was more than just a defeat for Hernandez, and it also put an end to Colombia’s long-standing stigmatization of the left for its perceived association with the armed conflict, which ran for five decades with the FARC until 2016 with Signing the peace agreement. Petro was once a rebel with the now-defunct M-19 movement and was imprisoned for his involvement with the group that signed a peace agreement in 1991.

Sunday’s results also gave Colombia its first black female vice president. Petro’s fellow pollster, Francia Marquez, 40, is a lawyer and environmental leader whose opposition to illegal mining led to threats and a grenade attack in 2019.

While her election is historic, some see it as a potential hurdle for Petro’s unwillingness to make concessions to the traditional parties.

Sergio Guzman, founder of Columbia Risk Analytics, said Petro should show an openness to sharing ministerial positions with other parties.

“We witnessed how fruitless Evan Duque’s first year was by not giving in to the policy of ‘pork barrels’ and giving in to the content of his then initial set of laws, it is unlikely that the next president will repeat the same experience.”

___

Garcia Cano reports from Caracas, Venezuela.

[ad_2]

Related posts

Leave a Comment