Summer is here, which means we’re approaching the start of the fantasy football draft. Success in those drafts will come from getting great deals in the mid to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers plummet compared to 2021. However, this last exercise is not easy, especially in the case of players who are among the elite in their position or In breakout seasons in stats sheets.
Case in point: In 2020, David Montgomery debuted as a fictional star as a major in Chicago. He placed fourth in fantasy points in this position while setting career highs across the board. This success made him a guaranteed top 20 pick in most 2021 reworks. Several fictional people have trusted that, with Montgomery doing so well in his successful campaign, he will do so well the following year. Unfortunately for those of you who have invested or outbid a high draft on it, this will not be the case.
Montgomery had a respectable season, which was not elite. His average yardage per carry increased from 4.3 to 3.8, and his average fantasy score per game decreased by nearly three. He would have finished as the RB21, or a full 17 places worse than his 2020 campaign.
The point here is that the directors of Fantasia trusted Montgomery a lot after his outbreak. Of course, you’d be warned about it if you read my Fantasy Case against an article in Chicago back in 2021. Which leads me to continue the series, as I’ll do my due diligence in looking at players that everyone in fantasy land seems to think is a sure bet to keep Maximum productivity after achieving a high level of success in the past years.
Next, let’s take a look at Javonte Williams’ second year in a row at the Broncos.
fictional case against: cooper cup | Davant Adams | Debo Samuel | Amon-Ra Saint Brown | Deontay Johnson | Cordaryl Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner
2021 season
Williams came out of North Carolina with such a high level of expectation that the Broncos went up in the NFL draft to land him in the second round. That carried over to the fantasy drafts, where Williams was close to the top 50 pick despite Melvin Gordon. While he had a nice freshman year, Williams was in a 50-50 split with the veteran. That lowered his stat cap—Williams finished the RB17 with 1,219 scrimmage yards and seven total touchdowns. Gordon actually put in more fantasy points for each game, but the duo were nearly mirror images in terms of production.
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As I mentioned, Williams and Gordon were ridiculously close in stats papers last year. Williams played another 34 attacking shots, but he played another game and that’s to be expected. On a per-game basis, both duos averaged about 32 shots. They also finished exactly 203 lunge attempts and were within 15 yards of each other.
Williams had an even greater advantage in the passing game, playing in 27 more shots with 15 extra goals, 15 extra goals, and another 113 yards. He had a small lead in touch ratio (30.4 to 28.6), but the difference was negligible, and Gordon averaged 0.14 more points per game. Like I said, the duo were incredibly close to production.
historical trends
The Broncos have had some elite fantasies for the past 25 years, and none are better than Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. However, the team hasn’t produced a backside with more than 300 PPR points since Portis did so in 2003. In the past 20 years, Denver has seen only two linebackers (Knowshon Moreno – 2013, Phillip Lindsay – 2018) score more than 220 points. In the past decade, no Broncos runner has finished better than 13th in points (Lindsay – 2018). He averaged 14.6 points per game.
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A final historical note: None of the Broncos’ back races have seen more than 245 dash attempts in the last 10 singles seasons. Williams and Gordon (203 pregnancies in 2021) tied for the sixth most on the team in that statistical division during that time frame.
Training and staff changes
Nathaniel Hackett will serve as the team’s new head coach after serving as offensive coordinator for eight seasons between the Bills, Jaguars and Packers. Justin Outten will be the new OC, but Hackett will be the real brain behind attack and play.
The racers had success under Hackett, with his offenses producing three fictional Top 12 seasons. Aaron Jones (2019, 2021) and Leonard Fournette (2017) both hit the mark, while TJ Yeldon was RB14 in 14 games under Hackett in 2018. He likes to use a featured one when possible, but Hackett ran a panel in 2016 with Weldon and Chris Ivory. Hackett also had a commission for what would be his last season in Green Bay, with Jones and AJ Dillon each seeing a 26% contact share in the offense.
Rule
The fictional love affair with Williams was evident early in the off season, as he was the sixth to drop off the board (7.9 ADP overall) in the month of April on the Fantasy National Football Championship website. I used April as a base because Gordon re-signed with the Broncos at the end of that month. Williams has been down in the drafts since then, but he’s still an RB9 and a guaranteed second-round pick (15.2 overall on the NFFC).
While I love his talent, Williams won’t handle a much more workload (unless injuries occur) than he did as a rookie with Gordon in the mix. The veteran remains a physical specimen who averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in his first two seasons in Denver. That’s an increase of the 3.8 yards he averaged in his final year with the Chargers.
Gordon also led Williams in a red zone appearance (42 to 36) last season despite playing one game less, so he’s a threat to take some goal-line chances in attack.
Fantasy managers should also consider that the Broncos will be much more productive in terms of pass attack, as Russell Wilson is a huge upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock at the quarterback. Denver ranked 22nd in pass percentage last year, throwing the ball 56% of the time. These totals will increase with Wilson under center. And if Hackett does in fact “let Ross cook,” the team will likely see a drop in the 43.9% dash mark seen last season with the Williams/Gordon commission.
In his last four seasons as coordinator, Hackett ran the ball at an average of 41.6%, 44.7%, 40.3% and 40.6%. It’s okay when you have a distinct one to consume the most touches, but it can be hard to decipher who sees more touches on a week to week basis when you have a good duo like Williams and Gordon splitting the workload. And trust me, the veteran isn’t going to fade during his 29-year-old season.
Do I still consider Williams fantasy number 2 again? Certainly, and I would feel good about having him in this role. But choosing him to be my number one runner is a risk I’m not willing to take while Gordon is still part of this talented back panel.
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Michael Fabiano He is an award winning fantasy football Analyst in Sports Illustrated He is a member of the Fiction Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all of his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael TwitterAnd the FacebookAnd the Youtube And the Instagram For the latest fantasy news and the best analysis in the business world!
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