Democrats are in serious trouble, because we are in the midst of witnessing an unimaginable shift in the American political demographics. And while First Lady Jill Biden directs her husband’s tendency to public gaffes, her recent embarrassing comparison of Latinos to “tacos” isn’t why Hispanics are fleeing the party in droves.
All my life, the Democrats have been the party of the working man, while the Republicans have been seen as the party of the rich. These stereotypes, going back at least as far back as Franklin Roosevelt (and helped Democrats control the House of Representatives for four decades), have been an almost indelible brand for decades.
The more recent (but decades-old) assumption has been that the increasing number of Hispanics in America will be somewhat miraculous For the Democrats—and the Republicans were destined to be almost exclusively a white (and shrinking) party.
It seems that both defaults are collapsing. “For the first time in timesSiena National Survey. Writes New York timesNate Cohen“Democrats garnered a greater share of support among white college graduates than among non-white voters–a stark indication of the shifting balance of political energy in the Democratic coalition.”
Democrats’ hopes of retaining power depend on non-white voters remaining a credible part of the party coalition. Josh Kraucher writes for Axios, suggesting that Democrats are, in fact, at disproportionate risk as America’s changing demographics. Meanwhile, declining white college graduates also pose a serious challenge to Republicans in major suburban areas.
This rearrangement has the potential to change everything we think we know about politics. How did that happen? I have ideas.
First, Democrats accepted the idea that demography was destiny and that a “rookie coalition” would emerge to provide them with a multitude of young Latinos who would vote for blue forever. This belief allowed them to let go of worrying about keeping these pesky working-class white voters – the increasingly blue-collar Democrats Hold on to guns and religion— in the alliance.
To compensate for alienating this part of the old Roosevelt coalition, Democrats will not only have to win Hispanic votes — they will have to dominate they. Instead, it looks like a portion of Hispanics as well Transformed by ‘wake up’, while a significant portion of Hispanics also prioritize their working-class status over their ethnic identity.” Republicans appear to be making new headway among non-white and working-class voters—and perhaps especially Hispanic voters—who remain concerned about the economy. and inflation more than their concern about abortion rights and guns,” he wrote in timesCohn.
Second, the rise of Twitter has created a world in which online Democrats can mistakenly believe that their views (promoted and propagated mostly by highly educated white progressives) refer to the nation as a whole. (Spoiler alert: They are not.) As a result, Democrats (who, again, assume demographics were on their side) have increasingly prioritized their messages about social justice activism, berating people for insufficiently complying with ever-changing gender identity norms, and equating any criticism of immigration policy with racism. .
Aside from creating a self-reinforcing echo chamber where progressives talk to themselves all day long, Twitter has also made it possible for ordinary Americans to get an unfiltered glimpse of what highly educated people in academia, media, and social justice activist circles really think. Many of these beliefs are not fundamentally aligned with mainstream American values. The result has been rhetoric and hashtags that alienate previously sympathetic voters.
Finally, modern political figures have brought us here. Barack Obama’s two states in the White House have convinced Democrats that the old rules have changed and that the wind is on their backs. Then, in 2016, lacking Obama charisma or an African-American support base, Hillary Clinton felt pressure to move to the left — in order to muster enough excitement to take out the Obama coalition.
The unexpected arrival of Donald Trump on the scene was also significant. The Republican Party repositioned itself as a more populist party (at least in theory) that abandoned conservative positions at the time on items such as spending and entitlements. Trump’s excessive rhetoric and a chaotic presidency have also radicalized progressives, leading them to emulate his rule-breaking behavior, in the opposite direction.
But just as Trump helped attract new voters to the Republican Party, he has alienated female college graduates, and Just which group –According to a NBC News report in April– It’s getting bluer since 2018.
Getting to this point has taken decades of time, a technological revolution, and political candidates reimagining what a winning political coalition might look like. The result is “the greatest political story of our time.” According to Kraucher.
Although the Democrats had a first-mover advantage, their turn toward awakening, along with a political play on the aggressive identity of Spaniards, appears to have been fateful.
But the bigger problem is that Democrats don’t seem interested in doing anything to expand their appeal, or even accept reality. Every time things don’t bounce, Democrats blame Trump, Fox News, Russia, or “messages.” But they don’t seem to be doing any research on why they lost market share to the party that nominated Donald Trump and helped instigate the Capitol riots.
Complicating matters, there are reasons to believe that Democrats are now in a position to do so Avoid the red wave Midterm in November 2022 – as candidates on the bottom ballot continue to outpace the president.
It is a paradox of American politics that both sides keep winning It is enough To prevent them from doing the hard work. And, ironically, a surprisingly good midterm result would make the Democrats less likely to tackle their long-term problems.
If you thought Democrats would see the writing on the wall and do whatever it takes to prevent Donald Trump from returning to the White House, think again.
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