Italy’s far-right victory is a (small) victory for Putin

Italy’s next prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, leads a party that can trace its roots back to the fascist followers of Benito Mussolini and an alliance that includes the parties of both corrupt former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and the influential ultra-nationalist politician. Matteo Salvini (who is probably the far right of the group and also a big fan of Putin).

After Sunday’s election, Meloni’s Meloni party, Forza Italia and Salvini’s Lega Nord will be able to form a coalition that would give them control of Italy’s lower house and upper house – presumably enabling them to advance. An agenda that would be anti-immigrant and hyper-nationalist.

How their Eurosceptic biases and pro-Putin leanings will ultimately affect the functioning of the European Union, and the West’s efforts to support Ukraine, is a big question mark. It also underscores the fact that maintaining transatlantic unity will be an increasingly difficult diplomatic challenge for the Biden administration and our like-minded allies.

Meloni promised to support Ukraine, but last week, Berlusconi made an ugly and pathetic defense What Putin is doing in Ukraine – he went so far as to say that Putin just wanted to get rid of Zelensky’s elected government in order to install a government of “respectable people” in Kyiv. Meanwhile, Salvini has been regularly accused of being a benefactor of Putin’s support.

In this, Salvini’s Lega Nord likens France’s right-wing party Marine Le Pen, which has also benefited from the support of Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán – the anti-democratic racist and favorite of Fox News and the American right wing. Both hailed the victory of the right in Italy, as he did Other right-wing parties across Europe.

Those parties were already feeling like they had some wind in their backs thanks to the strong performance of Luban In the last French elections and he recently won them Swedish right-wing party In the parliamentary elections there.

Combine these developments with the right-wing tilt of Britain’s Conservative Party – led by new Prime Minister Liz Truss – and the right in Europe feels good about itself.

Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Forza Italia, arrives to cast his vote during the general election in Milan, Italy on September 25, 2022.

Piero Crocciati/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

If there’s a fly in the far-right’s ointment, it’s the fact that Truss’ first weeks in office have been a disaster – with timely and ill-considered tax cuts announced for the wealthy as a cornerstone of an economic agenda ever since pits the British pound, a Now flirting with the parity of the dollar to For the first time ever.

Of course, economic performance has rarely been a strong right-wing solution (see Putin, Vladimir or Berlusconi, Silvio or, for that matter, Trump, Donald), except to the degree that it means better returns for elites surrounding far-right leaders. (These “anti-elite” parties are almost always pro-elite.) Instead, they focus on it Providing voters with scapegoats On those who blame their problems, especially foreigners, different races, Jews, and anyone who threatens their “national identity.”

While the achievements of the leaders and parties of the new right-wing movement are difficult to quantify, their destructive potential is significant. Britain’s exit from the European Union comes to mind, A joint project backed by Russia with the British far-right. They have also done great harm to democracy, as in the case of Hungarian Prime MinisterUrban.

The concern about how these new right-wing governments might weaken European unity and push for ever tougher immigration policies are great, as are concerns about how the more empowered right might push for policies that weaken support for Ukraine or for sanctions against Russia.

For this reason, the In response to Meloni’s victory from the United States and other key allies In the Ukrainian coalition to maintain a constructive relationship and critical policies. “We are keen to work with the Italian government to achieve our shared goals: supporting a free and independent Ukraine, respecting human rights, and building a sustainable economic future,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a statement. French President Emmanuel Macron tried to maintain a similar tone but sounded more somber – perhaps given his near political death experience against Le Pen. He said: “As neighbors and friends, we must continue to work together. In Europe we will overcome our common challenges.”

Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) waves during a press conference at the party’s electoral headquarters last night, on September 25, 2022 in Rome, Italy.

Antonio Maciello / Getty Images

Putin, who has been a financier, friend, and northern star of many leaders in the ethno-nationalist right around the world, should look at these successes with pleasure, and if he has any moment of honesty with himself, get angry. His efforts to weaken Western alliances and global institutions through politically active actions across Europe and the United States were exceptionally successful by all accounts. This could be a moment of real advantage for him in achieving his larger goals. But his decision to expand his invasion of Ukraine (and his stringent failures to manage this act of aggression) cost him the ability to profit from it as he might be.

However, he will undoubtedly use his relationships with governments in places like Italy, France, Hungary, and the Republican Party in the United States to mitigate the consequences of his disaster in Ukraine. Banning or easing sanctions and new aid efforts to Ukraine, seeking to oppose strengthening NATO, or deepening Ukraine’s involvement in European institutions are all ways Putin will likely seek to influence these groups with whom he has close ties.

Next up for the global right are two election results. First, in October, Brazil’s right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro (who also got close to Putin) He faces former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Then, in the United States, the MAGA-dominated Republican Party seeks to regain control of the US Congress.

Bolsonaro is expected to loseBut whether he goes quiet or strikes another right-wing blow against democracy is something that watchers are watching closely. Bolsonaro has openly modeled himself on Trump, and there is every reason to fear that he will act Trumpianly, should he lose.

However, it is the US competition that the Putinist right is watching closely. Republican Party Leader Donald Trump’s tenderness towards Russia Well documented. More power for his party, which could enable them to oppose Biden’s initiatives in Ukraine, or help the Republican Party win the 2024 presidential election, would be the only real non-nuclear Hill Mary pass Putin could hope for. The rise of the European right can help it in its current crisis. It gives him his first good news since he started current operations in Ukraine in February. It could eventually provoke dissent in the EU and NATO in ways that only benefit Putin.

Still, Trump’s re-election would be a real godsend for the Kremlin, an opportunity to re-register the most powerful country on Earth as a member of Putin’s team at the moment when it might actually save the Russian dictator from reaping the full consequences. His fatal strategic mistake, the military, humanitarian, economic and diplomatic disaster for Moscow, the war in Ukraine.

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