Welcome to our week six cheat sheet. What exactly is a cheat sheet? There are no ratings, and no one-page printout. It is not a traditional cheat sheet. It’s like money. I want to give you some quick and easy tips, highlight a few players I’m up to or less on than the average analyst for this week’s games list and provide links to our other content here on SI Fantasy.
One confusing aspect of covering fantasy football for a living is that I often get a lot of start/sit questions throughout the week that don’t make much sense to me. For example, I was asked if someone should start George Kettle or Tysom Hill this week. See, if that’s the kind of problem you create for yourself every week when making a lineup, you’re complicating the game. You probably crafted a Kittle in round 4 or 5, right? Sure, he started slow but Hill is a boom or bust player. If anyone succeeds in separating booms from busts, they will be a billionaire, not answering the questions of an imaginary lineup. I’m fine for being wrong with a player but then again Hill has five touchdowns in four competitions (sat in week 3). Does he keep it rolling? Will Hill score 20 touchdowns this year? number.
Try to have some awareness of what’s luck – or uncommon at best – versus what a player can actually replicate, and head toward the safe and boring side when defining your lineups. If you’re trying to make big calls every week, you’ll be breathing a lot more than you’ll be stressing about those calls. If your cup of tea isn’t safe and boring, I get it. We want to appear smart. We want to go one step ahead of the masses. “Look at me, I predicted that this statistically average player would outperform any known player; I’m great at fantasy football!” number.
There has to be some kind of nuance in your gameplay. If you’re going to make a call, look for some statistical evidence. The top corner back of a team might get hurt, so their opponent’s #1 player has a better-than-average game. It’s probably going to be really windy, so there are more attempts to rush in. If there is no logic, then you are reducing the game to a lotto scratcher.
Let me get off my high horse. I feel very comfortable there, right?
In this Week 6 cheat sheet, I don’t want to spend a lot of time focusing on regular fantasy players throughout the league, instead I want to focus on frontier line players who are either at the end of your starting lineup, or the end of your group. Bench or near the top of the 12-team waiver wire.
1. Bronco Buckfield Graduated
Only when we’re all too comfortable getting rid of Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett will we have to hold our tongues. Whereas the safe play is Melvin Gordon against the Chargers background. I will go a step further and also recommend Mike Boone, especially on DFS. Its price point would be great. Chargers are the worst in the league for the tried-and-true case of fantasy points allowed in a running back, giving up 619 rushing yards, five fast touchdowns, 31 receiving for 191 yards and three touchdown touchdowns. Let me intensify the nerd by noting that chargers are also dead in yards before calling (1.95, next worst is 1.64).
I know Broncos added Latavius Murray, so this backroom isn’t quite as straightforward. The three linebackers should gain some playing time here, but I feel Boone will gain a lot of playing time in third as he beat Gordon in third by two goals to one. And just to be clear, Gordon is still playing really hard in this match, I just wanted to give Boone some love too if I needed to dig deeper. At Gordon’s discretion, he ranked 14th with 13 tackles avoided, tied for 13th in red zone campaigns and tied for 12th in an in-the-5 carry.
Overall, the Broncos (read: Wilson and Gordon) couldn’t execute in the red. In 14 trips to the red, they scored only three touchdowns (21.4%, last). Approaching the league’s average TD average in the red (57%) would be a game-changer in the Broncos narrative. Their offensive line is ranked 8th in the PFF Offensive Line rankings, so there are plenty of factors that could go in their favour. Boone’s hack appears to be correct with all that in mind.
2. No good, leopards are very bad
This isn’t the week you dip your toe back into Carolina waters. While their Week 6 rival, the Los Angeles Rams, doesn’t really amaze anyone, this match doesn’t do the Panthers any credit. The Rams have allowed the fewest points to run back, and while they have given up the fourth most points for receivers, nearly 40% of those total points come from receivers. Plus, you’ll have to rely on Baker Mayfield’s backup, PJ Walker, to get something in the scrolling game. With its running game potentially interrupted, that’s a big reason why Mayfield and Co. Very little oomph with the pass.
Let’s cover Mayfield just so we know what we’re up against and how Carolina has fared. He averages 6.7 air yards per pass attempt (IAY/PA), nearly two yards less than his previous low career. This translates to 4.7 completed air yards per achievement (CAY/Cmp), 1.6 yards less than his career low. Last year he hit 11 balls, but he already has 12 from five games. The 64.1% target for this season is about 10 points lower than the percentage for 2021 (73.6%). The Rams are ranked ninth in the passing dash and as long as Aaron Donald plays (he didn’t train Wednesday), they should be as good as advertised.
Mayfield likely won’t play due to a sprained ankle, leaving Walker to start. The Rams have a good number of injured angles, but there is a lot of wrong tendency in Carolina to regard the entire offense as more than just a fading.
3. Justin Fields Fail
Prior to the second week, after the Bears had somehow wiped out the 49ers, she wrote about Justin Fields:
If Justin Fields is your QB1, why? But it will be a very long season. It should be a red flag that in nearly every game, Fields’ best-scoring passes are malfunctions as he scrambles for four seconds and thumps them deep. It is not sustainable! I understand the bears attack is not good, except for the “stuck behind David Montgomery” boyfriend Herbert but Fields is doing no favors to anyone.
And before the eighth week of 2021, I wrote about Fields (and Jets QB Zach Wilson): “At Fields and Wilson, we’re at Defcon-1. Help! Mayday! Abandon Ship!”
Fields look quite the same with happy feet in the pocket, mistrusting his readings, not making critical throws and allowing himself to be consumed by cover sacks. Not all on it. Fields’ limitations come from an inflexible and insensitive coaching staff with a humble call to play. Entering this game, the leaders had 14 bags (2.8 bags per game) through five competitions. Washington sacked Fields five times.
Here are two advanced stats for you: expected points added per game (EPA/play) and percentage completion over prediction (CPOE). The Environmental Protection Agency isThe metric that determines how many expected points the play will add (or lose). CPOE ContextsHow good is the quarterback’s completion percentage while controlling the difficulty of the throws they attempt.“If you add those two stats for this season, the top six quarterbacks are Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Gino Smith, Tua Tagoviloa, Galen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. Not bad, right? Who is the second worst player? Justin Fields. The worst?” Well, it’s Baker Mayfield, of course.
Something has to change. And I don’t know what that team is going to do since almost all of the coaching staff has been brought in this year. So they inherited the fields and won’t keep it indefinitely. The coaching staff usually want their “man,” so I expect they trade the fields and put on the quarterback next year. Or maybe the Bears owner or the front office decides to hit the reset button on the coaching staff. Something has to change.
4. My Week 6 Friggin’ Bums
Each week, I’ll be highlighting eight players (two in each position) that I like who are featured in the bottom 50% of Yahoo Leagues. You can think of them as desperate plays or paychecks in DFS competitions.
- QB Bailey Zappe, NE (in CLE)
- QB Zach Wilson, New York (in Britain)
- RB Mike Boone, den (in lac)
- RB Eno Benjamin, ARI (at SEA)
- WR Marvin Jones, JAC (at IND)
- WR Alec Pierce, India (v. Jack)
- TE Will Dissly, SEA (versus ARI)
- TE Daniel Bellinger, New York (v. Bale)
5. SI Fantasy Week 5 is a MUST READ
Before selecting your listings, be sure to check out some world-class fantasy information from our SI Fantasy analysts:
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