The new COVID subvariants that are becoming prevalent worldwide are not only more contagious than previous variants and subvariants – they can cause more serious disease as well.
This is an ominous sign, experts predict, if there is a new global wave of COVID in the coming months. It is important to overcome the increase in infection that often leads to mild illness. Cases are rising, but hospitalizations and deaths are rising no. But a sudden rise in serious illnesses can lead to an increase in the number of hospitalizations and deaths, too.
It could be like 2020 or 2021, again. The big difference is that we now have easy access to safe and effective vaccines. And vaccines still work, even against new sub-variants.
New study From Ohio State University is the first red flag. A team led by Shan-Lu Liu, co-director of the HSU Emerging Viruses and Pathogens Program, engineered novel SARS-CoV-2 sub variants including BQ.1 and its close cousin BQ.1.1.
The team confirmed what we already knew: BQ.1 and other new sub variants, most of them descendants of the BA.4 and BA.5 forms of the Omicron variant, are highly contagious. The same mutations that make them transmissible also render them unrecognizable by the antibodies produced by monoclonal treatments, rendering those treatments useless.
This should be reason enough to pay close attention as BQ.1 and its cousins are overtaking BA.4 and BA.5 and becoming dominant in more countries and states. But then Liu and colleagues also examined the ‘fusion’ of the subvariables. That is, how well it integrates into our cells. “Integration between the viral and cellular membrane is an important step for virus entry,” Liu told The Daily Beast.
In general, the higher the melting point, the greater the severity of the disease. Liu and colleagues note “increased cell-cell fusion in many of the new Omicron sub-variants compared to their parental variants,” they write in their study, which appeared online October 20 and is still under review by colleagues at New England Journal of Medicine.
If these new sub-variables are already more portable And the More severely, they could reverse an important trend as the COVID pandemic approaches its fourth year. The tendency, to date, for each successive major variant or variant to be more contagious but cause less severe disease.
This trend, along with widespread vaccination and new treatments, has led to what scientists call a “decoupling” of infections and deaths. Cases of COVID virus rise occasionally as some novel or highly contagious variant becomes prevalent. But because these new forms of SARS-CoV-2 cause less severe disease, deaths do not increase as much.
This separation, combined with the availability of vaccines and treatments, has allowed most people around the world to return to some sort of normality in the past year or so. If BQ.1 or another highly fused subvariable returns the mating of infection and mortality, this new normal could become a new nightmare. “More hospitalizations and deaths,” summarized Ali Miqdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington Institute of Health who was not involved in the Ohio State University study.
It is possible that we have already seen the first re-coupling. Since new subvariables began to compete seriously for dominance in recent months, epidemiologists have carefully monitored COVID statistics in order to detect any real-world effects.
Singapore was a fake flag. The small Asian city-state has seen a rapid rise in cases this month, which some experts initially worried might include a dangerous new variant. But the country’s Ministry of Health sequenced a lot of viral samples, quickly, and determined BA.5 was the culprit. Singapore’s high vaccination and booster rate – 92 percent of the population had their primary vaccinations and 80 percent had their boosters – limited the BA.5 increase in vaccination without a significant rise in mortality.
But then there is Germany, where cases also rose this month. German authorities have not yet determined which variant or variant is responsible, but it is worth noting that BQ.1 is rapidly spreading across Europe.
There are signs of re-coupling in Germany. In October, the country recorded up to 175,000 new cases per day – matching the peak of the previous wave in July. But 160 Germans died every day on average in the worst week of the current increase, while only 125 died every day in the worst week of the summer increase. “We can see the same patterns in other European countries…and in the United States,” said Miqdad.
There is still a lot we don’t know about the most recent sub-variables of COVID. And we won’t focus on its real-world impact until we get good data from Germany. “Clearly monitoring the new variants and studying their properties is critical,” Liu said.
But one thing is clear. Despite their transmissibility and fusion, the new sub-variables you did not It largely escaped the immunological effects of pioneering vaccines. The latest ‘bivalent’ enhancers, specifically designed for BA.4 and BA.5, should maintain vaccine efficacy as long as the dominant sub-variants are closely related to the omicron.
Get vaccinated and stay on top of your boosters. It is impossible to stress this too much. Yes, BQ.1 and its cousins display some disturbing traits that could bend the arc of an epidemic back toward death and widespread disruption.
But only if you’re not immune or behind on your boosters.
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