CASTLETON ON HUDSON, NY – Lee Zelden, having recently left a sunset helicopter ride, was satisfied and let my dad jokes flow.
The Long Island Republican congressman was so charmed that he compared his long-running campaign for governors not only to those of repeat New York victors like Senator Chuck Schumer and former Governor George Pataki—the last Republican to win statewide in 2002—but also a prince of all people.
“And with all apologies to Prince, as I thought a few days ago, I think New York is ready to celebrate like 1994,” Zeldin said Thursday after the helicopter landed before his march, referring to Pataki’s surprise win over the former governor. Mario Cuomo.
He even encouraged New Yorkers to vote by mail if they couldn’t show up on Election Day, and told reporters he was confident in the state’s absentee voting system despite some of his concerns with pandemic expansions in 2020.
“I would strongly encourage anyone who cannot vote in person to make sure they ask for the absentee ballot and get that ballot,” Zeldin said when asked by The Daily Beast if he had confidence in mail-in voting. Measures “tougher than red states” should inspire confidence.
In other words, Zeldin believes he can win, and cannot afford to hamper his campaign by just sticking to Trump’s handbook.
He blended the usual GOP talking points about crime and inflation with his own brand of humor, joking that visiting all 62 counties in New York should henceforth be known as “the complete Zeldin” instead offull schumer. “
And while the helicopter photo may have fallen short, with the shot of the helicopter landing obstructed by trees and a prearranged crowd of supporters holding placards, Zeldin and his big-ticket deputy, Representative Elise Stefanik, couldn’t get the slightest attention.
For the pair of Empire State Republicans, the Thursday night rally in front of more than 1,000 was a homecoming of sorts.
Zeldin went to Albany Law School and Stefanek attended the Albany Girls’ Academy, both institutions with tight-knit domestic alumni networks that tend to fluctuate due to lawmakers’ embrace of former President Donald Trump.
But around the club on a quiet golf course about 20 minutes south of Albany, Zeldin and Stefanek were homecoming king and queen, with local candidates and throngs of supporters looking forward to spending time with members of Congress.
Stefanek said the crowd was the largest she had seen at a rally in upstate New York in recent memory and promised voters they had a “once in a century” chance to turn the scenario around by ousting Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochhol, who did not do so after confronting voters after taking office as Andrew Cuomo Following his resignation in August 2021.
Zeldin coined his campaign as wanting to “rebalance” Albany, attracting disaffected independent voters and Democrats.
So far, the numbers haven’t proven it yet, though Zeldin couldn’t ask for a better poll picture in election week, having closed the gap from about 20 points in July to just 7 points with five days left, according to the
Zeldin’s main issue is the Democratic Party’s two-to-one registration advantage over the Republican Party across the state, and five-to-one in New York City.
Even if Zelden gets every Trump voter in the New York general election to turn up again, he’ll need Democrats’ turnout to drop below 60 percent of 2020 levels to have any chance of winning, according to the Analyze data from the city.
Registered Democrats have already exceeded their early and absentee vote totals from 2020 and 2018 so far in this cycle, while Republicans and Independents haven’t shown a similar increase.
That leaves huge election-day crowds and a much higher-than-usual turnout in upstate and Long Island areas as a major source of hope for Zelden, but those in attendance were feeling just as confident as the Prince-inspired candidate.
For Josh Kowalski, a 47-year-old from nearby Altamont who works in construction, the entire night was unnatural at best.
“Look, we don’t get that kind of vibe in upstate New York,” Kowalski told The Daily Beast. “We usually know the results before the elections.”
Kowalski, like other attendees, said this was the first time since Pataki that Republicans had felt someone had a real chance in New York.
Jeff Centola, an engineer from Burnt Hills, listed bail reform and inflation as his top two issues.
As someone who’s used to Republicans plunging across the state and accepting state or congressional victories here and there, Centola said he believes this election may finally be the case.
Looking at the crowd as dozens of voters were waiting in line and dozens struggled to find a parking spot, Cintula couldn’t help but feel Zeldin’s mindset.
“There is enough noise,” he said. “Just look at this place.”
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