The 2022 midterm season started suboptimally for Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar. He was already facing a tough initial challenge from a well-funded opponent for a region that had always been targeted by Republicans in the fall. Then the FBI raided his house.
He watched prominent Democrats either turn their backs on him or support his Democratic challenger.
But despite being forced into a runoff, Cuellar survived.
And some of the same Democrats who were actively rooting against him earlier this year are now praying that he will continue to thrive.
If he succeeds, it could be somewhat startling, given the circumstances.
When Jessica Cisneros chose to tour Cuellar for the second time in two elections, the Cuellar team knew it was dangerous. With a little funding and a name ID the first time around, she was very close. This time she had money and endorsements from big hitters like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
In January, the FBI publicly raided his home, leaving him largely unable to reveal details about why so many chests have been implemented in his suburban residence, until now. His lawyer later claimed that the Justice Department says Cuellar is not a target of the investigation, which was linked to doing business in Azerbaijan, the Daily Beast reported at the time. Over time, footage of the raid appeared in campaign ads against him – and raised questions among voters.
After that, neither Cuellar nor his progressive opponent reached 50% in the primaries, and the contest entered an agonizing two-and-a-half-month run, which he won by less than 300 votes.
Then, this summer the Supreme Court overturned Roe’s position against Wade, and Cuellar’s position as the only Democrat ever to openly oppose abortion.
It is not the year that puts any Democrat on the path to success. Even more so in a region like South Texas where Republicans, emboldened by their gains with Latino voters in the last election, funneled money to their candidates, including Cuellar’s Republican opponent Cassie Garcia.
Cuellar stuck to his name recognition and status as the “King of Laredo,” and somehow expected to do well in November.
As Joshua Plank, director of research at the Texas Policy Project, said in an interview: “I wouldn’t bet against Cuellar.”
Because fellow Democrats in similar elective positions note that their chances fluctuate throughout the year, the Democratic Congressional Committee did not add Cuellar to the “leaders” list of Democrats most at risk — and his seat was never in the Republican district of the independent ranking. Lists such as Cook Political Report, which classifies the contest as a “Lean Dem.”
Many of the DCCC’s leaderboards consist of moderates like Cuellar who hail from swing regions, like Representatives. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), Sanford Bishop (D-GA) or Jared Golden (D-GA)-ME), who are also members of the Blue Dog’s centrist coalition in Congress with Cuellar.
Surely anything can happen. Garcia is well resourced and Republicans have made tangible gains in the region. Areas like Cuellar are also known to be difficult to survey, with low contact, language barriers, mixed immigration situations, and more.
But there is a mix of reasons why Cuellar – and a very moderate in the House – could reconcile the voters in this light-blue district.
He is a champion in increasing border protection. He is known for bringing much-needed funds to the region. He’s not very intimate with President Biden and has been open about former President Trump’s policies in ways that other Democrats haven’t been open to. His ties to the city are deep. His brother Martin is the mayor, while his sister Rosie is the former county tax collector.
In Blank’s words, Cuellar is a “good match for the district,” and voters don’t have to make much of a mental leap to vote for a member of Congress who’s already been elected nine times.
“For all the problems Democrats may or may not have in South Texas, Henry Cuellar is not the focal point of those problems,” he said.
But that doesn’t mean Republicans go easy on the congressman. In ads, the Republican Party has criticized him as an elusive corrupt politician worthy of the boot.
“It’s time for Henry Cuellar to start answering questions. Asks the FBI. Raiding his house. Investigating ties to a government in the Middle East,” one ad By the National Republican Congressional Committee said.
Another NRCC ad Claims have surfaced that Cuellar “does it for power, money, and prestige” and that Cuellar “tastes the good life, almost lives like a king” offering voters only scraps of his table.
that ad by the Congressional Leadership Fund, another Republican-allied PAC, insisted that Cuellar “really” live in his D.C. residence, citing a number of amenities allegedly included in the apartment building such as a 24-hour concierge and fitness center ( None of that isn’t all that unusual for DC apartment complexes).
He went to Washington. Forget about us,” the narrator rings.
National conservatives are optimistic about Garcia’s chances, although Democrats have sought to describe it as a threat to Social Security and Medicare. One GOP strategist told The Daily Beast they were confident Cuellar’s standing in the region was precarious, saying, “He’s struggling…I think his image has become somewhat unpopular in the region.”
Blank noted that there is more Democrats in this region may need to do in order to achieve success, other than attacking Garcia’s political positions. He said they need to push for uptake at a much higher rate than in years past.
With increased investment from Republicans, the Republican Party’s base in South Texas was increasingly mobilized. That means Democrats like Cuellar must work to increase turnout to keep up with energetic GOP voters, some of whom may not have voted in previous elections.
Ed Espinosa, president of Progress Texas, also told The Daily Beast Democrats, Democrats should be cognizant of continuing their energy and investment in heavily South Texas, even if Republicans haven’t explicitly stolen seats in large numbers yet.
“South Texas is not a grassroots democracy. The Latino community in general is not a democratic community norm.
A lack of grassroots action in areas like Cuellar could force Democrats to pay the price in future elections.
“Democrats are ignoring South Texas at their own peril,” he said.
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